{
  "title": "x402 quarter cross-check — Q2 2026 archive vs measured now",
  "captured_at": "2026-09-23T07:15:00Z",
  "license": "CC-BY-4.0",
  "attribution": "Data: x402-list.com (CC BY 4.0) + Pennyforge measurement. Compiled by Pennyforge.",
  "note": "Three independent vantage points on the same rail, each correct within its own scope. Q2 = the directory's own dated, corrected quarterly archive (a slice it monitored, not a census). NOW = its live aggregate endpoint + the directory's own per-service measured floor. WIDE = third-party on-chain measurement of every x402 settlement contract on EVM (verified 2026-09-06).",
  "q2_2026_archive": {
    "source": "https://x402-list.com/state-of-x402/2026-Q2",
    "period": "2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30",
    "status": "dated, citable snapshot; corrected 2026-07-03 (category normalization) and twice 2026-08-17 (on-chain settlement backfill: $3.34M/19,611,577 -> $3.65M/28,736,888)",
    "services_monitored": 77,
    "weighted_uptime_pct": 96.2,
    "categories": {
      "Data": {"services": 36, "uptime_pct": 97.2},
      "AI": {"services": 16, "uptime_pct": 98.3},
      "Finance": {"services": 10, "uptime_pct": 83.9},
      "Blockchain": {"services": 7, "uptime_pct": 99.8},
      "Content": {"services": 3, "uptime_pct": 100},
      "Other": {"services": 3, "uptime_pct": 79.5},
      "Compute": {"services": 2, "uptime_pct": 99.1}
    },
    "facilitator_onchain_volume_usd": 3650000,
    "facilitator_settlements": 28736888,
    "facilitators": 28,
    "scope": "reconstructed from the monitoring archive; the 77 services are the slice x402-list monitored that quarter, not the whole ecosystem"
  },
  "now": {
    "stats_source": "https://x402-list.com/api/v1/stats",
    "stats_as_of": "2026-09-23T06:41:33.864Z",
    "traction_as_of": "2026-09-23T05:38:26.224Z",
    "directory_total_services": 841,
    "public_list_snapshot": 789,
    "payment_ready": 728,
    "verified": 13,
    "endpoints": 5562,
    "facilitator_volume_usd_30d": 619316.49,
    "facilitator_count": 25,
    "facilitator_30d_tx": 6719579,
    "per_service_measured_floor_30d": {
      "volume_usd": 52398.93,
      "settlements": 497769,
      "unique_buyers": 4647,
      "measured_services": 578,
      "coverage_of_measured_flow_pct": 8.2,
      "top10_volume_share_pct": 89.5,
      "top1_volume_share_pct": 65.3
    },
    "verified_note": "13 delivery-verified; 8 of the 13 are one operator's family (forgemesh.io subdomains)"
  },
  "wide": {
    "source": "Bitquery (verified by Pennyforge 2026-09-06, audit in the whale article)",
    "period": "2026-08 (EVM-wide)",
    "evm_settled_usd": 2590000000,
    "one_arbitrum_bridge_contract_share_pct": 88,
    "base_polygon_agent_payments_month_usd": 57000,
    "one_percent_fee_processor_month_usd": 59295,
    "scope": "every x402 settlement contract on EVM — includes bridge/infrastructure flows no directory lists"
  },
  "what_the_comparison_shows": [
    "Directory growth: 77 monitored services in Q2 -> 841 in the directory now (11x); 308 new in the last 30 days alone.",
    "Uptime: 96.2% (Q2, weighted over a quarter, the 77-service monitored slice) vs 83.7% (24h average now, full directory) — a real decline, but partly confounded by population growth and a different window.",
    "Rail volume: Q2 was the high-water quarter ($3.65M/quarter = ~$1.22M/month); the current 30d facilitator window is $619.3k — about half the Q2 monthly average.",
    "Measured directory flow is a small slice of the rail: listed services capture 8.2% of measured facilitator flow; $52.4k per-service floor vs $619.3k rail.",
    "Concentration has two faces: by settlement count blockrun leads (~38% of measured settlements, 203k small tickets); by dollars the top service is a checkout service (65.3% of measured volume, ~$13.70 average ticket). Top-10 services = 89.5% of measured volume.",
    "The rail is wider than any directory: EVM-wide x402 settlement was $2.59B in August 2026, 88% of it one Arbitrum bridge contract — 'directory' and 'rail' are different animals, and both numbers are correct."
  ],
  "method_notes": [
    "x402-list traction dedupes on settlement identity (network, tx_hash, log_index); naive per-service sums overcount by ~7%.",
    "The 09-18 page snapshot reported 1,400,370 per-service 30d settlements; the provider's current dedup reports 497,769 for the same scope. Volume and buyer series are stable across the change; treat the settlement count as method-sensitive.",
    "Facilitator 30d total differs by ~$1.4k between the per-facilitator endpoint sum ($620,768) and the stats aggregate ($619,316) at capture time — regeneration timing."
  ]
}